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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 20

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.29 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP