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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 84-A.Brown (29-D.Amerson).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.26 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model