Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 89

Carolina Panthers 37 – Green Bay Packers 29

What Actually Happened

(:19) 8-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to GB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde to GB 45 for 16 yards (20-K.Coleman). PENALTY on GB-36-L.Gunter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 31.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.01 EP
37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 89, worth -2.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model