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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 4

Green Bay Packers 29 – Carolina Panthers 37

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 89-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 58-T.Davis [99-K.Short] at CAR 4. 58-T.Davis to CAR 3 for -1 yards (70-T.Lang).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model