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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 29 – Carolina Panthers 37

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to CAR 9 for 8 yards (25-B.Benwikere).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.70 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP