Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 22 – Carolina Panthers 37

(5:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 89-J.Jones to CAR 20 for 36 yards (24-J.Norman).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.82 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP