Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 37 – Green Bay Packers 22

(6:29) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to GB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model