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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 8-T.Masthay punts 56 yards to CAR 26, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn to GB 42 for 32 yards (51-N.Palmer; 8-T.Masthay). PENALTY on CAR-43-F.Whittaker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model