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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 30 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to GB 39, Center-44-J.Jansen. 33-M.Hyde to GB 40 for 1 yard (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP