Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 14 – Carolina Panthers 30

(:50) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to CAR 10, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 11 for 1 yard (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.70 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model