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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 14 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 8-T.Masthay punts 54 yards to CAR 18, Center-61-B.Goode. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 29 for 11 yards (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP