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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +3.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.54 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.86 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP