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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 20 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model