Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 7 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to CAR 33, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis. PENALTY on GB-36-L.Gunter, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CAR 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model