4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:26) 30-K.Gaskins right guard to ATL 8 for 1 yard (95-J.Babineaux).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 9, worth +0.74 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model