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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 3-M.Bryant 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +4.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.31 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP