Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(10:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to SF 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.32 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model