4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to ATL 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model