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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:06) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to SF 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model