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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to ATL 31, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 9 yards (30-K.Gaskins).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model