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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to SF 3, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model