Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 6 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 57 yards to SF 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-B.Ellington to SF 28 for 17 yards (42-P.DiMarco). PENALTY on ATL-80-L.Toilolo, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at SF 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.41 EP
52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model