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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to ATL 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to ATL 28 for 12 yards (86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.99 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model