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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model