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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 92

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ATL 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at SF 45 for 14 yards (89-V.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 92, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 50, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model