Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to DAL 35, Center-49-C.Gresham. 23-C.White MUFFS catch, recovered by DAL-27-J.Wilcox at DAL 35. PENALTY on DAL-57-D.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.54 EP
61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model