4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 65

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to MIN 24, Center-43-T.Gafford. 35-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model