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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to CHI 11, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-M.Mariani MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 13. 80-M.Mariani pushed ob at CHI 16 for 3 yards (58-B.Watts). MIN-58-B.Watts was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model