4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.59 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.69 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model