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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(5:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 31 yards to CHI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP