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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 36

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model