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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 54

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to MIN 16, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model