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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:22) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.17 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP