4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 81

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(7:02) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to MIN 37, Center-43-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model