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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(9:11) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model