Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 25, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for 10 yards (35-E.Reid). PENALTY on SEA-13-C.Matthews, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 25. T.Lockett credited with return of 0 yds.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model