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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 3
Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(8:49) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to SF 1 for 2 yards (95-C.Carradine).
The Three Options
GO
+3.97 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
- 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.08 EP
KICK
+1.80 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
- 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
