Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 20 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to SF 20, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 23-R.Bush. PENALTY on SF-11-Q.Patton, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model