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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to SEA 27, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 27 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.47 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model