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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to SEA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-35-E.Reid.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.31 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model