Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(13:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 39 for 4 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model