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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 6

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP