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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model