Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(14:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to PIT 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown to PIT 28 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.51 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model