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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 91

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to PIT 38, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.17 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model