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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to KC 3, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP