Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:08) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to KC 16, Center-60-G.Warren. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 41 for 25 yards (4-J.Berry).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model