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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(:23) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +2.64 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model