Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Carolina Panthers 24

(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 19-M.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.86 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP