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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 8-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.66 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP